Paul Tonko · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Tonko is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Tonko at 98.5¢ against Ambrosio's 3.1¢, up 3.5¢ since August 3. Tonko leads 32.9 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Tonko · Democratic contract

98.5¢

▲ 3.5¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Paul Tonko by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 99.9¢ · low 95¢Oct 12

Paul TonkoDemocratic · incumbent

98.5¢

Ralph F. AmbrosioRepublican

3.1¢

1,761 traded · 1,500 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Tonko v Ambrosio

Metric by metric

Tonko

Ambrosio

98.5¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

3.1¢

$957.6K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$29.0K

$404.3K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$8.1K

U.S. Representativesince 2009

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

New York 20th District

Prior result

D+22.2

2024 general election, won by Paul Tonko.

Fundraising

32.9 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.