Lloyd Smucker · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Smucker is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Smucker at 95.4¢ against Mannion's 4.4¢, up 3.7¢ since August 3. Smucker leads 7.1 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Smucker · Republican contract

95.4¢

▲ 3.7¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Lloyd Smucker by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 99.4¢ · low 91¢Oct 12

Lloyd SmuckerRepublican · incumbent

95.4¢

Nancy MannionDemocratic

4.4¢

8,978 traded · 4,450 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Smucker v Mannion

Metric by metric

Smucker

Mannion

95.4¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

4.4¢

$1.52M

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$214.2K

$810.8K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$47.2K

U.S. Representativesince 2017

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Pennsylvania 11th District

Prior result

R+25.8

2024 general election, won by Lloyd Smucker.

Fundraising

7.1 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.