Marlin A. Stutzman · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Stutzman is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Stutzman at 97.8¢ against Thompson's 4.4¢, up 1.3¢ since August 3. Stutzman leads 6.1 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Stutzman · Republican contract

97.8¢

▲ 1.3¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Marlin A. Stutzman by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 98¢ · low 96¢Oct 12

Marlin A. StutzmanRepublican · incumbent

97.8¢

Kelly ThompsonDemocratic

4.4¢

1,106 traded · 994 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Stutzman v Thompson

Metric by metric

Stutzman

Thompson

97.8¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

4.4¢

$839.6K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$136.3K

$101.9K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$6.0K

U.S. Representativesince 2025

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Indiana 3rd District

Prior result

R+33.6

2024 general election, won by Marlin A. Stutzman.

Fundraising

6.1 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.