Josh Riley · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Riley is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Riley at 98.6¢ against Oberacker's 2.2¢, up 11.6¢ since August 3. Riley leads 3.9 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Riley · Democratic contract

98.6¢

▲ 11.6¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Josh Riley by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 99.8¢ · low 87¢Oct 12

Josh RileyDemocratic · incumbent

98.6¢

Peter OberackerRepublican

2.2¢

11,543 traded · 7,443 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Riley v Oberacker

Metric by metric

Riley

Oberacker

98.6¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

2.2¢

$4.83M

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$1.24M

$3.19M

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$392.9K

U.S. Representativesince 2025

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

New York 19th District

Prior result

D+2.2

2024 general election, won by Josh Riley.

Fundraising

3.9 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.