Luz M. Rivas
CA-29Every candidate on the November ballot is a Democrat, so the seat cannot change party. The FTP Race Signal reads the seat; the Kalshi figure is Rivas's own contract.
What the Signal reads
Rivas is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Rivas at 93¢ against Dueñas's 8¢, up 6¢ since August 3. Rivas leads 18 to 1 in money raised.
The market
13,497 traded · 4,517 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Rivas v Dueñas
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
California 29th District2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Luz M. Rivas.
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.
THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWND+34.8 → D+33.6
California voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. Its partisan lean barely changes (Harris +34.8 to Harris +33.6 in the 2024 presidential vote).