August Pfluger
TX-11What the Signal reads
Pfluger is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Pfluger at 96.6¢ against Reynolds's 6.8¢, up 2.1¢ since August 3. Pfluger leads 35.7 to 1 in money raised.
The market
This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on August Pfluger by name.
1,213 traded · 810 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Pfluger v Reynolds
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Texas 11th District2024 general election · previous district lines, won by August Pfluger.
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.
THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWNR+45.5 → R+34.4
Texas redrew its congressional map in the middle of the decade through HB 4, which Gov. Greg Abbott signed on Aug. 29, 2025. A federal court blocked the map, but the U.S. Supreme Court put that ruling on hold in December 2025 and reversed it in April 2026, so the new lines are in place for 2026. It becomes much less Republican, going from Trump +45.5 to Trump +34.4 in the 2024 presidential vote.