Elections Intelligence

Rob Menendez

NJ-8U.S. House H architectural icon
INCUMBENT Safe D Strong favorite
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Menendez is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Menendez at 99¢, up 2.6¢ since August 3.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Menendez · Democratic contract
99.0¢
▲ 2.6¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Rob Menendez by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 99.8¢ · low 96.4¢Oct 12
Rob MenendezDemocratic · incumbent
99.0¢
Republican lineNo candidate is named on this contract.
4.0¢

3,814 traded · 3,181 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

The 2026 race

New Jersey 8th District
Prior result
D+18.4

2024 general election, won by Robert Menendez.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.