John R. Moolenaar · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Moolenaar is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Moolenaar at 99.1¢ against Ambrose's 2.6¢, up 3.9¢ since August 3. Moolenaar leads 19.4 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Moolenaar · Republican contract

99.1¢

▲ 3.9¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on John R. Moolenaar by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 99.1¢ · low 95.2¢Oct 12

John R. MoolenaarRepublican · incumbent

99.1¢

Ben AmbroseDemocratic

2.6¢

9,676 traded · 4,444 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Moolenaar v Ambrose

Metric by metric

Moolenaar

Ambrose

99.1¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

2.6¢

$1.65M

RaisedFEC, through July 15

$85.1K

$1.91M

Cash on handFEC, through July 15

$21.9K

U.S. Representativesince 2015

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Michigan 2nd District

Prior result

R+30.1

2024 general election, won by John R. Moolenaar.

Fundraising

19.4 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 15.