Elections Intelligence

James P. McGovern

MA-2U.S. House H architectural icon
INCUMBENT Safe D Strong favorite
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Safe D

McGovern is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has McGovern at 98.2¢, up 0.7¢ since August 3.

The market

Kalshi ↗
McGovern · Democratic contract
98.2¢
▲ 0.7¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on James P. McGovern by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 99.9¢ · low 97.4¢Oct 12
James P. McGovernDemocratic · incumbent
98.2¢
Republican lineNo candidate is named on this contract.
3.2¢

1,197 traded · 1,081 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

The 2026 race

Massachusetts 2nd District
Prior result
McGovern +37.5

McGovern won 68.6% to 31.1% over Cornelius Shea (independent) (2024).

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.