Zoe Lofgren · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Lofgren is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Lofgren at 99.4¢ against Lewis's 3.4¢, up 1.9¢ since August 3. Lofgren leads 16 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Lofgren · Democratic contract

99.4¢

▲ 1.9¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Zoe Lofgren by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 99.9¢ · low 97.5¢Oct 12

Zoe LofgrenDemocratic · incumbent

99.4¢

Shane LewisRepublican

3.4¢

653 traded · 622 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Lofgren v Lewis

Metric by metric

Lofgren

Lewis

99.4¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

3.4¢

$1.72M

RaisedFEC, through June 30 and September 30

$107.0K

$643.3K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30 and September 30

$3.3K

U.S. Representativesince 1995

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

California 18th District

Prior result

D+29.2

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Zoe Lofgren.

Fundraising

16 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through September 30.

THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWND+29.5 → D+28.5

California voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. Its partisan lean barely changes (Harris +29.5 to Harris +28.5 in the 2024 presidential vote).

The record this is read from ↗