Elections Intelligence

Mike Johnson

LA-4U.S. House H architectural icon
INCUMBENT Safe R Strong favorite
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Johnson is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market prices a Republican hold of the seat at 97.1¢, a price on the party and not on Johnson.

The market

Kalshi ↗

No price is quoted on this candidate: no contract on this candidate in the market.

Democratic lineNo candidate is named on this contract.
4.7¢
Republican lineNo candidate is named on this contract.
97.1¢
Conrad CableDemocratic
no contract on this candidate in the market
Matt GromlichDemocratic
no contract on this candidate in the market
Gordon HeslopRepublican
no contract on this candidate in the market
Mike JohnsonRepublican
no contract on this candidate in the market
Mike NicholsRepublican
no contract on this candidate in the market

2,961 traded · 1,807 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Johnson v Cable

Metric by metric
Johnson
Cable
$20.98M
RaisedFEC, through July 18
No filing on file for Conrad Cable with the Federal Election Commission.
$9.61M
Cash on handFEC, through July 18
—
U.S. Representativesince 2017
Holds now
No office on file

The 2026 race

Louisiana 4th District
Prior result
85.8 to 14.2

Johnson won 85.8% to 14.2% over another Republican (2024).

THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWNR+52.1 → R+34.2

Louisiana redrew its map after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the previous one in Louisiana v. Callais on April 29, 2026. The new plan (SB 121) was signed on May 29, 2026. It becomes much less Republican, going from Trump +52.1 to Trump +34.2 in the 2024 presidential vote.

The record this is read from ↗

The open primary is on November 3, which is 22 days away. If no one tops 50%, the top two meet on December 12.