Robert Garcia
CA-42What the Signal reads
Garcia is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Garcia at 97.9¢ against Burley's 4.7¢, up 0.6¢ since August 3. Garcia leads 11.3 to 1 in money raised.
The market
This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Robert Garcia by name.
1,044 traded · 794 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Garcia v Burley
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
California 42nd District2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Robert Garcia.
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.
THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWND+32.4 → D+13.1
California voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. It becomes much less Democratic, going from Harris +32.4 to Harris +13.1 in the 2024 presidential vote.