Sylvia R. Garcia
TX-29What the Signal reads
Garcia is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Garcia at 97.6¢ against Fierro's 2¢, up 1.7¢ since August 3.
The market
This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Sylvia R. Garcia by name.
2,021 traded · 1,718 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Garcia v Fierro
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Texas 29th District2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Sylvia R. Garcia.
THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWND+20.4 → D+30.4
Texas redrew its congressional map in the middle of the decade through HB 4, which Gov. Greg Abbott signed on Aug. 29, 2025. A federal court blocked the map, but the U.S. Supreme Court put that ruling on hold in December 2025 and reversed it in April 2026, so the new lines are in place for 2026. It becomes much more Democratic, going from Harris +20.4 to Harris +30.4 in the 2024 presidential vote.