Elections Intelligence

Laura Friedman

CA-30U.S. House H architectural icon
INCUMBENT Safe D Strong favorite
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Friedman is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Friedman at 99.1¢ against Meyers's 3.5¢, up 4.1¢ since August 3. Friedman leads 14.2 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Friedman · Democratic contract
99.1¢
▲ 4.1¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Laura Friedman by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 99.9¢ · low 95¢Oct 12
Laura FriedmanDemocratic · incumbent
99.1¢
Scott Alan MeyersRepublican
3.5¢

1,402 traded · 1,328 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Friedman v Meyers

Metric by metric
Friedman
Meyers
99.1¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
3.5¢
$827.9K
RaisedFEC, through June 30
$58.3K
$469.3K
Cash on handFEC, through June 30
$2.6K
U.S. Representativesince 2025
Holds now
No office on file

The 2026 race

California 30th District
Prior result
D+36.8

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Laura Friedman.

Fundraising
14.2 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.

THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWND+41.1 → D+40.0

California voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. Its partisan lean barely changes (Harris +41.1 to Harris +40 in the 2024 presidential vote).

The record this is read from ↗

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.