Ron Estes · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Estes is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Estes at 96.8¢ against Tyndell's 4.6¢, up 4.1¢ since August 3. Estes leads 7.9 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Estes · Republican contract

96.8¢

▲ 4.1¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Ron Estes by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 98.4¢ · low 92.7¢Oct 12

Ron EstesRepublican · incumbent

96.8¢

Katy TyndellDemocratic

4.6¢

12,277 traded · 7,409 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Estes v Tyndell

Metric by metric

Estes

Tyndell

96.8¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

4.6¢

$1.86M

RaisedFEC, through July 15

$234.5K

$1.76M

Cash on handFEC, through July 15

$72.9K

U.S. Representativesince 2017

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Kansas 4th District

Prior result

R+30.1

2024 general election, won by Ron Estes.

Fundraising

7.9 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 15.