Jake Ellzey
TX-6What the Signal reads
Ellzey is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Ellzey at 96.5¢ against Minton's 4.1¢, up 1.9¢ since August 3. Ellzey leads 105.2 to 1 in money raised.
The market
This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Jake Ellzey by name.
2,790 traded · 1,609 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Ellzey v Minton
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Texas 6th District2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Jake Ellzey.
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.
THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWNR+28.5 → R+22.9
Texas redrew its congressional map in the middle of the decade through HB 4, which Gov. Greg Abbott signed on Aug. 29, 2025. A federal court blocked the map, but the U.S. Supreme Court put that ruling on hold in December 2025 and reversed it in April 2026, so the new lines are in place for 2026. It becomes somewhat less Republican, going from Trump +28.5 to Trump +22.9 in the 2024 presidential vote.