Madeleine Dean · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Dean is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Dean at 97.9¢ against Stuski's 4.4¢, up 3.7¢ since August 3.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Dean · Democratic contract

97.9¢

▲ 3.7¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Madeleine Dean by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 98¢ · low 94.2¢Oct 12

Madeleine DeanDemocratic · incumbent

97.9¢

Aurora StuskiRepublican

4.4¢

3,464 traded · 1,938 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Dean v Stuski

Metric by metric

Dean

Stuski

97.9¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

4.4¢

$1.37M

RaisedFEC, through June 30

No total for Aurora Stuski: no report covering this period is on file with the Federal Election Commission.

$1.18M

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

—

U.S. Representativesince 2019

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Pennsylvania 4th District

Prior result

D+18.2

2024 general election, won by Madeleine Dean.