Mark DeSaulnier · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

DeSaulnier is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has DeSaulnier at 99.4¢ against Frese's 3.5¢, up 3.4¢ since August 3.

The market

Kalshi ↗

DeSaulnier · Democratic contract

99.4¢

▲ 3.4¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Mark DeSaulnier by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 99.8¢ · low 96¢Oct 12

Mark DeSaulnierDemocratic · incumbent

99.4¢

Jeff FreseRepublican

3.5¢

1,151 traded · 646 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

DeSaulnier v Frese

Metric by metric

DeSaulnier

Frese

99.4¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

3.5¢

$567.3K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

No total for Jeff Frese: no report covering this period is on file with the Federal Election Commission.

$586.5K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

—

U.S. Representativesince 2015

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

California 10th District

Prior result

D+33.0

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Mark DeSaulnier.

THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWND+33.8 → D+33.5

California voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. Its partisan lean barely changes (Harris +33.8 to Harris +33.5 in the 2024 presidential vote).

The record this is read from ↗