Sean Casten · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Casten is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Casten at 99.3¢ against Conforti's 4.1¢, up 6.3¢ since August 3. Casten leads 6.7 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Casten · Democratic contract

99.3¢

▲ 6.3¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Sean Casten by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 99.9¢ · low 93¢Oct 12

Sean CastenDemocratic · incumbent

99.3¢

Niki ConfortiRepublican

4.1¢

826 traded · 545 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Casten v Conforti

Metric by metric

Casten

Conforti

99.3¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

4.1¢

$2.11M

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$313.0K

$1.29M

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$22.7K

U.S. Representativesince 2019

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Illinois 6th District

Prior result

D+8.4

2024 general election, won by Sean Casten.

Fundraising

6.7 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.