John R. Carter
TX-31What the Signal reads
Carter is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Carter at 96.1¢ against Early's 5.6¢, up 5.8¢ since August 3. Carter leads 11.4 to 1 in money raised.
The market
This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on John R. Carter by name.
5,704 traded · 3,207 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Carter v Early
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Texas 31st District2024 general election · previous district lines, won by John R. Carter.
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.
THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWNR+23.3 → R+21.9
Texas redrew its congressional map in the middle of the decade through HB 4, which Gov. Greg Abbott signed on Aug. 29, 2025. A federal court blocked the map, but the U.S. Supreme Court put that ruling on hold in December 2025 and reversed it in April 2026, so the new lines are in place for 2026. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +23.3 to Trump +21.9 in the 2024 presidential vote).