Mark Alford · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Alford is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Alford at 97.9¢ against Herrera's 3.7¢, up 7.2¢ since August 3. Alford leads 33.3 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Alford · Republican contract

97.9¢

▲ 7.2¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Mark Alford by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 98¢ · low 90.7¢Oct 12

Mark AlfordRepublican · incumbent

97.9¢

Jordan HerreraDemocratic

3.7¢

7,660 traded · 4,698 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Alford v Herrera

Metric by metric

Alford

Herrera

97.9¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

3.7¢

$1.39M

RaisedFEC, through July 15

$41.7K

$747.4K

Cash on handFEC, through July 15

$19.4K

U.S. Representativesince 2023

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Missouri 4th District

Prior result

R+44.7

2024 general election, won by Mark Alford.

Fundraising

33.3 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 15.