Pete Aguilar · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Aguilar is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Aguilar at 97.5¢ against Vargas's 4.2¢, up 4¢ since August 3.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Aguilar · Democratic contract

97.5¢

▲ 4.0¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Pete Aguilar by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 98.4¢ · low 93.5¢Oct 12

Pete AguilarDemocratic · incumbent

97.5¢

Stephanie M. VargasRepublican

4.2¢

6,671 traded · 5,640 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Aguilar v Vargas

Metric by metric

Aguilar

Vargas

97.5¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

4.2¢

$4.72M

RaisedFEC, through June 30

No total for Stephanie M. Vargas: no report covering this period is on file with the Federal Election Commission.

$3.46M

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

—

U.S. Representativesince 2015

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

California 33rd District

Prior result

D+17.6

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Pete Aguilar.

THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWND+8.7 → D+9.8

California voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. Its partisan lean barely changes (Harris +8.7 to Harris +9.8 in the 2024 presidential vote).

The record this is read from ↗