Elections Intelligence

Trygve Hammer

ND-ALU.S. House H architectural icon
CHALLENGER Safe R Long shot
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Hammer is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Hammer at 2.8¢ against Fedorchak's 97.9¢, down 4.1¢ since August 3. Fedorchak leads 9.1 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Hammer · Democratic contract
2.8¢
▼ 4.1¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Trygve Hammer by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 9¢ · low 2¢Oct 12
Trygve HammerDemocratic
2.8¢
Julie FedorchakRepublican · incumbent
97.9¢

9,867 traded · 4,461 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Hammer v Fedorchak

Metric by metric
Hammer
Fedorchak
2.8¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
97.9¢
$190.1K
RaisedFEC, through June 30
$1.73M
$67.4K
Cash on handFEC, through June 30
$1.06M
No office on file
Holds now
U.S. Representativesince 2025

The 2026 race

North Dakota At-Large District
Prior result
R+38.2

2024 general election, won by Julie Fedorchak.

Fundraising
9.1 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.