Thomas Smith · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Smith is the Republican challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Smith at 5¢ against Rivet's 98.1¢, down 4.8¢ since July 31. Rivet leads 548.5 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Smith · Republican contract

5.0¢

▼ 4.8¢since July 31

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Thomas Smith by name.

Jul 3148 daily readings · high 12¢ · low 5¢Oct 12

Thomas SmithRepublican

5.0¢

Kristen McDonald RivetDemocratic · incumbent

98.1¢

9,109 traded · 5,704 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Smith v Rivet

Metric by metric

Smith

Rivet

5.0¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

98.1¢

$10.3K

RaisedFEC, through July 15

$5.64M

$7.0K

Cash on handFEC, through July 15

$4.25M

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2025

The 2026 race

Michigan 8th District

Prior result

D+6.7

2024 general election, won by Kristen McDonald Rivet.

Fundraising

548.5 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 15.