Stephanie M. Vargas · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Vargas is the Republican challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Vargas at 4.2¢ against Aguilar's 97.5¢, up 0.8¢ since August 3.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Vargas · Republican contract

4.2¢

▲ 0.8¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Stephanie M. Vargas by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 8¢ · low 3.4¢Oct 12

Stephanie M. VargasRepublican

4.2¢

Pete AguilarDemocratic · incumbent

97.5¢

6,671 traded · 5,640 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Vargas v Aguilar

Metric by metric

Vargas

Aguilar

4.2¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

97.5¢

No total for Stephanie M. Vargas: no report covering this period is on file with the Federal Election Commission.

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$4.72M

—

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$3.46M

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2015

The 2026 race

California 33rd District

Prior result

D+17.6

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Pete Aguilar.