Shane Lewis · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Lewis is the Republican challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Lewis at 3.4¢ against Lofgren's 99.4¢, down 0.1¢ since August 3. Lofgren leads 16 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Lewis · Republican contract

3.4¢

▼ 0.1¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Shane Lewis by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 4.9¢ · low 3.4¢Oct 12

Shane LewisRepublican

3.4¢

Zoe LofgrenDemocratic · incumbent

99.4¢

653 traded · 622 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Lewis v Lofgren

Metric by metric

Lewis

Lofgren

3.4¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

99.4¢

$107.0K

RaisedFEC, through June 30 and September 30

$1.72M

$3.3K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30 and September 30

$643.3K

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 1995

The 2026 race

California 18th District

Prior result

D+29.2

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Zoe Lofgren.

Fundraising

16 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through September 30.