Samantha Mota

CA-37

CHALLENGER Safe DThe seat Strong favorite

Every candidate on the November ballot is a Democrat, so the seat cannot change party. The FTP Race Signal reads the seat; the Kalshi figure is Mota's own contract.

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Mota is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Mota at 9¢ against Kamlager-Dove's 95¢, up 4¢ since August 3. Kamlager-Dove leads 100.8 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Mota · Democratic contract

9.0¢

▲ 4.0¢since August 3

Aug 342 daily readings · high 11¢ · low 5¢Oct 12

Samantha MotaDemocratic

9.0¢

Sydney Kamlager-DoveDemocratic · incumbent

95.0¢

22,032 traded · 6,206 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Mota v Kamlager-Dove

Metric by metric

Mota

Kamlager-Dove

9.0¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

95.0¢

$11.4K

RaisedFEC, through June 30 and September 30

$1.15M

$208

Cash on handFEC, through June 30 and September 30

$185.5K

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2023

The 2026 race

California 37th District

Prior result

Kamlager-Dove +56.6

Kamlager-Dove won 78.3% to 21.7% over Juan Rey (independent) (2024).

Fundraising

100.8 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through September 30.