Elections Intelligence

Ray Bilger

PA-15U.S. House H architectural icon
CHALLENGER Safe R Long shot
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Bilger is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Bilger at 3.8¢ against Thompson's 97.2¢, down 3.7¢ since August 3. Thompson leads 13.2 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Bilger · Democratic contract
3.8¢
▼ 3.7¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Ray Bilger by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 9.9¢ · low 3.8¢Oct 12
Ray BilgerDemocratic
3.8¢
Glenn ThompsonRepublican · incumbent
97.2¢

9,965 traded · 9,343 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Bilger v Thompson

Metric by metric
Bilger
Thompson
3.8¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
97.2¢
$139.5K
RaisedFEC, through June 30
$1.85M
$87.3K
Cash on handFEC, through June 30
$829.8K
No office on file
Holds now
U.S. Representativesince 2009

The 2026 race

Pennsylvania 15th District
Prior result
R+43.0

2024 general election, won by Glenn Thompson.

Fundraising
13.2 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.