Ralph F. Ambrosio · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Ambrosio is the Republican challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Ambrosio at 3.1¢ against Tonko's 98.5¢, down 2.9¢ since August 3. Tonko leads 32.9 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Ambrosio · Republican contract

3.1¢

▼ 2.9¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Ralph F. Ambrosio by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 8.6¢ · low 3.1¢Oct 12

Ralph F. AmbrosioRepublican

3.1¢

Paul TonkoDemocratic · incumbent

98.5¢

1,761 traded · 1,500 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Ambrosio v Tonko

Metric by metric

Ambrosio

Tonko

3.1¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

98.5¢

$29.0K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$957.6K

$8.1K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$404.3K

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2009

The 2026 race

New York 20th District

Prior result

D+22.2

2024 general election, won by Paul Tonko.

Fundraising

32.9 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.