Peter Oberacker · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Oberacker is the Republican challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Oberacker at 2.2¢ against Riley's 98.6¢, down 12.8¢ since August 3. Riley leads 3.9 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Oberacker · Republican contract

2.2¢

▼ 12.8¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Peter Oberacker by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 15¢ · low 1.4¢Oct 12

Peter OberackerRepublican

2.2¢

Josh RileyDemocratic · incumbent

98.6¢

11,543 traded · 7,443 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Oberacker v Riley

Metric by metric

Oberacker

Riley

2.2¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

98.6¢

$1.24M

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$4.83M

$392.9K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$3.19M

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2025

The 2026 race

New York 19th District

Prior result

D+2.2

2024 general election, won by Josh Riley.

Fundraising

3.9 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.