Niki Conforti · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Conforti is the Republican challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Conforti at 4.1¢ against Casten's 99.3¢, up 3.3¢ since August 3. Casten leads 6.7 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Conforti · Republican contract

4.1¢

▲ 3.3¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Niki Conforti by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 6.4¢ · low 0.8¢Oct 12

Niki ConfortiRepublican

4.1¢

Sean CastenDemocratic · incumbent

99.3¢

826 traded · 545 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Conforti v Casten

Metric by metric

Conforti

Casten

4.1¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

99.3¢

$313.0K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$2.11M

$22.7K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$1.29M

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2019

The 2026 race

Illinois 6th District

Prior result

D+8.4

2024 general election, won by Sean Casten.

Fundraising

6.7 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.