Nancy Mannion · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Mannion is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Mannion at 4.4¢ against Smucker's 95.4¢, down 3.8¢ since August 3. Smucker leads 7.1 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Mannion · Democratic contract

4.4¢

▼ 3.8¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Nancy Mannion by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 11¢ · low 3.6¢Oct 12

Nancy MannionDemocratic

4.4¢

Lloyd SmuckerRepublican · incumbent

95.4¢

8,978 traded · 4,450 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Mannion v Smucker

Metric by metric

Mannion

Smucker

4.4¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

95.4¢

$214.2K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$1.52M

$47.2K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$810.8K

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2017

The 2026 race

Pennsylvania 11th District

Prior result

R+25.8

2024 general election, won by Lloyd Smucker.

Fundraising

7.1 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.