Elections Intelligence

Mike Croley

TN-6U.S. House H architectural icon
CHALLENGER Safe R Long shot
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Croley is the Democratic nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Croley at 4.9¢ against Garrett's 97.8¢, down 0.1¢ since August 3. Garrett leads 67.2 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Croley · Democratic contract
4.9¢
▼ 0.1¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Mike Croley by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 93.8¢ · low 4.9¢Oct 12
Mike CroleyDemocratic
4.9¢
Johnny GarrettRepublican
97.8¢

2,342 traded · 2,056 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Croley v Garrett

Metric by metric
Croley
Garrett
4.9¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
97.8¢
$35.4K
RaisedFEC, through July 17
$2.38M
$2.4K
Cash on handFEC, through July 17
$287.6K
No office on file
Holds now
No office on file

The 2026 race

Tennessee 6th District
Prior result
R+36.0

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by John W. Rose.

Fundraising
67.2 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 17.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.