Micah Lasher · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Lasher is the Democratic nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Lasher at 99.4¢ against Shinkle's 0.8¢, up 0.4¢ since August 3. Lasher leads 21.3 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Lasher · Democratic contract

99.4¢

▲ 0.4¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Micah Lasher by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 99.9¢ · low 98.5¢Oct 12

Micah LasherDemocratic

99.4¢

Caroline ShinkleRepublican

0.8¢

3,421 traded · 3,346 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Lasher v Shinkle

Metric by metric

Lasher

Shinkle

99.4¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

0.8¢

$3.32M

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$155.1K

$1.09M

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$83.8K

No office on file

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

New York 12th District

Prior result

D+60.9

2024 general election, won by Jerrold Nadler.

Fundraising

21.3 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.