Elections Intelligence

Matt Gromlich

LA-4U.S. House H architectural icon
CHALLENGER Safe R Long shot
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Gromlich is a Democratic candidate for a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market prices a Democratic win of the seat, a flip from Republican, at 4.7¢, a price on the party and not on Gromlich.

The market

Kalshi ↗

No price is quoted on this candidate: no contract on this candidate in the market.

Democratic lineNo candidate is named on this contract.
4.7¢
Republican lineNo candidate is named on this contract.
97.1¢
Conrad CableDemocratic
no contract on this candidate in the market
Matt GromlichDemocratic
no contract on this candidate in the market
Gordon HeslopRepublican
no contract on this candidate in the market
Mike JohnsonRepublican
no contract on this candidate in the market
Mike NicholsRepublican
no contract on this candidate in the market

2,961 traded · 1,807 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Gromlich v Johnson

Metric by metric
Gromlich
Johnson
No filing on file for Matt Gromlich with the Federal Election Commission.
RaisedFEC, through July 18
$20.98M
—
Cash on handFEC, through July 18
$9.61M
No office on file
Holds now
U.S. Representativesince 2017

The 2026 race

Louisiana 4th District
Prior result
85.8 to 14.2

Johnson won 85.8% to 14.2% over another Republican (2024).

The open primary is on November 3, which is 22 days away. If no one tops 50%, the top two meet on December 12.