Lauren Reinhold · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Reinhold is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Reinhold at 4.4¢ against Mann's 97.9¢, down 1.6¢ since August 3. Mann leads 30.8 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Reinhold · Democratic contract

4.4¢

▼ 1.6¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Lauren Reinhold by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 9¢ · low 4.4¢Oct 12

Lauren ReinholdDemocratic

4.4¢

Tracey MannRepublican · incumbent

97.9¢

3,797 traded · 2,845 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Reinhold v Mann

Metric by metric

Reinhold

Mann

4.4¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

97.9¢

$48.3K

RaisedFEC, through July 15

$1.49M

$4.8K

Cash on handFEC, through July 15

$2.71M

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2021

The 2026 race

Kansas 1st District

Prior result

R+38.3

2024 general election, won by Tracey Mann.

Fundraising

30.8 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 15.