Larry Thompson · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Thompson is the Republican challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Thompson at 3.5¢ against Sherman's 98.9¢, up 0.7¢ since August 3. Sherman leads 73.2 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Thompson · Republican contract

3.5¢

▲ 0.7¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Larry Thompson by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 5.6¢ · low 1.6¢Oct 12

Larry ThompsonRepublican

3.5¢

Brad ShermanDemocratic · incumbent

98.9¢

2,301 traded · 1,971 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Thompson v Sherman

Metric by metric

Thompson

Sherman

3.5¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

98.9¢

$34.3K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$2.51M

$2.2K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$2.67M

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 1997

The 2026 race

California 32nd District

Prior result

D+32.4

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Brad Sherman.

Fundraising

73.2 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.