Elections Intelligence

Kelly Thompson

IN-3U.S. House H architectural icon
CHALLENGER Safe R Long shot
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Thompson is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Thompson at 4.4¢ against Stutzman's 97.8¢, up 0.9¢ since August 3. Stutzman leads 6.1 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Thompson · Democratic contract
4.4¢
▲ 0.9¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Kelly Thompson by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 7.5¢ · low 3.5¢Oct 12
Kelly ThompsonDemocratic
4.4¢
Marlin A. StutzmanRepublican · incumbent
97.8¢

1,106 traded · 994 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Thompson v Stutzman

Metric by metric
Thompson
Stutzman
4.4¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
97.8¢
$136.3K
RaisedFEC, through June 30
$839.6K
$6.0K
Cash on handFEC, through June 30
$101.9K
No office on file
Holds now
U.S. Representativesince 2025

The 2026 race

Indiana 3rd District
Prior result
R+33.6

2024 general election, won by Marlin A. Stutzman.

Fundraising
6.1 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.