Katy Tyndell · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Tyndell is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Tyndell at 4.6¢ against Estes's 96.8¢, down 2.9¢ since August 3. Estes leads 7.9 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Tyndell · Democratic contract

4.6¢

▼ 2.9¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Katy Tyndell by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 11¢ · low 4.6¢Oct 12

Katy TyndellDemocratic

4.6¢

Ron EstesRepublican · incumbent

96.8¢

12,277 traded · 7,409 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Tyndell v Estes

Metric by metric

Tyndell

Estes

4.6¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

96.8¢

$234.5K

RaisedFEC, through July 15

$1.86M

$72.9K

Cash on handFEC, through July 15

$1.76M

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2017

The 2026 race

Kansas 4th District

Prior result

R+30.1

2024 general election, won by Ron Estes.

Fundraising

7.9 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 15.