Justin Early · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Early is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Early at 5.6¢ against Carter's 96.1¢, down 6.4¢ since August 3. Carter leads 11.4 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Early · Democratic contract

5.6¢

▼ 6.4¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Justin Early by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 12¢ · low 5.6¢Oct 12

Justin EarlyDemocratic

5.6¢

John R. CarterRepublican · incumbent

96.1¢

5,704 traded · 3,207 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Early v Carter

Metric by metric

Early

Carter

5.6¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

96.1¢

$123.5K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$1.42M

$17.4K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$170.8K

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2003

The 2026 race

Texas 31st District

Prior result

R+28.9

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by John R. Carter.

Fundraising

11.4 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.