Jordan Herrera · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Herrera is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Herrera at 3.7¢ against Alford's 97.9¢, down 6.2¢ since August 3. Alford leads 33.3 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Herrera · Democratic contract

3.7¢

▼ 6.2¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Jordan Herrera by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 10¢ · low 3.7¢Oct 12

Jordan HerreraDemocratic

3.7¢

Mark AlfordRepublican · incumbent

97.9¢

7,660 traded · 4,698 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Herrera v Alford

Metric by metric

Herrera

Alford

3.7¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

97.9¢

$41.7K

RaisedFEC, through July 15

$1.39M

$19.4K

Cash on handFEC, through July 15

$747.4K

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2023

The 2026 race

Missouri 4th District

Prior result

R+44.7

2024 general election, won by Mark Alford.

Fundraising

33.3 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 15.