James “Rus” Russell III · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Russell is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Russell at 3.3¢ against Westerman's 99.5¢, down 0.6¢ since August 3. Westerman leads 437.8 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Russell · Democratic contract

3.3¢

▼ 0.6¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on James “Rus” Russell III by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 7.1¢ · low 3.3¢Oct 12

James “Rus” Russell IIIDemocratic

3.3¢

Bruce WestermanRepublican · incumbent

99.5¢

4,862 traded · 3,420 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Russell v Westerman

Metric by metric

Russell

Westerman

3.3¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

99.5¢

$5.9K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$2.56M

$907

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$4.67M

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2015

The 2026 race

Arkansas 4th District

Prior result

R+45.8

2024 general election, won by Bruce Westerman.

Fundraising

437.8 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.