James Hayes · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Hayes is the Republican challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Hayes at 2.4¢ against Lee's 98.4¢, down 1.5¢ since August 3. Lee leads 36.5 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Hayes · Republican contract

2.4¢

▼ 1.5¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on James Hayes by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 8.7¢ · low 2.4¢Oct 12

James HayesRepublican

2.4¢

Summer L. LeeDemocratic · incumbent

98.4¢

60,495 traded · 58,345 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Hayes v Lee

Metric by metric

Hayes

Lee

2.4¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

98.4¢

$40.1K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$1.47M

$9.5K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$1.65M

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2023

The 2026 race

Pennsylvania 12th District

Prior result

D+12.8

2024 general election, won by Summer L. Lee.

Fundraising

36.5 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.