Frederick Haynes III · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Haynes is the Democratic nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Haynes at 99.3¢ against Jackson's 2.7¢, up 2.3¢ since August 3. Haynes leads 24.4 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Haynes · Democratic contract

99.3¢

▲ 2.3¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Frederick Haynes III by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 99.9¢ · low 97¢Oct 12

Frederick Haynes IIIDemocratic

99.3¢

Everett JacksonRepublican

2.7¢

4,152 traded · 2,868 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Haynes v Jackson

Metric by metric

Haynes

Jackson

99.3¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

2.7¢

$420.2K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$17.2K

$119.8K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$1.2K

No office on file

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Texas 30th District

Prior result

Crockett +69.8

Crockett won 84.9% to 15.1% over Jrmar “J J” Jefferson (Libertarian) (2024).

Fundraising

24.4 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.