Ethan Baker · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Baker is the Republican nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Baker at 4.7¢ against Moss's 97.7¢, unchanged since August 3. Moss leads 138.3 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Baker · Republican contract

4.7¢

Unchangedsince August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Ethan Baker by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 7.2¢ · low 4¢Oct 12

Ethan BakerRepublican

4.7¢

Jeremy MossDemocratic

97.7¢

2,411 traded · 1,045 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Baker v Moss

Metric by metric

Baker

Moss

4.7¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

97.7¢

$10.7K

RaisedFEC, through June 30 and July 15

$1.49M

$2.1K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30 and July 15

$352.5K

No office on file

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Michigan 11th District

Prior result

D+18.0

2024 general election, won by Haley Stevens.

Fundraising

138.3 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 15.