Dillan Vancil · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Vancil is the Republican challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Vancil at 3.9¢ against Sorensen's 96.2¢, down 5.1¢ since August 3. Sorensen leads 7.2 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Vancil · Republican contract

3.9¢

▼ 5.1¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Dillan Vancil by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 9.9¢ · low 2.2¢Oct 12

Dillan VancilRepublican

3.9¢

Eric SorensenDemocratic · incumbent

96.2¢

7,401 traded · 4,215 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Vancil v Sorensen

Metric by metric

Vancil

Sorensen

3.9¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

96.2¢

$308.8K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$2.23M

$56.7K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$1.33M

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2023

The 2026 race

Illinois 17th District

Prior result

D+8.8

2024 general election, won by Eric Sorensen.

Fundraising

7.2 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.