Danny Minton · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Minton is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Minton at 4.1¢ against Ellzey's 96.5¢, down 1.5¢ since August 3. Ellzey leads 105.2 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Minton · Democratic contract

4.1¢

▼ 1.5¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Danny Minton by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 11¢ · low 1.5¢Oct 12

Danny MintonDemocratic

4.1¢

Jake EllzeyRepublican · incumbent

96.5¢

2,790 traded · 1,609 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Minton v Ellzey

Metric by metric

Minton

Ellzey

4.1¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

96.5¢

$44.3K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$4.66M

$13.6K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$2.48M

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2021

The 2026 race

Texas 6th District

Prior result

R+31.4

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Jake Ellzey.

Fundraising

105.2 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.