Claire Reynolds · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Reynolds is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Reynolds at 6.8¢ against Pfluger's 96.6¢, down 2.2¢ since August 3. Pfluger leads 35.7 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Reynolds · Democratic contract

6.8¢

▼ 2.2¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Claire Reynolds by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 9.9¢ · low 4¢Oct 12

Claire ReynoldsDemocratic

6.8¢

August PflugerRepublican · incumbent

96.6¢

1,213 traded · 810 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Reynolds v Pfluger

Metric by metric

Reynolds

Pfluger

6.8¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

96.6¢

$89.3K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$3.19M

$46.8K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$2.88M

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2021

The 2026 race

Texas 11th District

Prior result

R+100.0

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by August Pfluger.

Fundraising

35.7 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.