Elections Intelligence

Chris McGowan

IA-4U.S. House H architectural icon
CHALLENGER Safe R Strong favorite
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Safe R

McGowan is the Republican nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has McGowan at 96.9¢ against Dawson's 5.6¢, up 5.1¢ since August 3. McGowan leads 5 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
McGowan · Republican contract
96.9¢
▲ 5.1¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Chris McGowan by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 96.9¢ · low 91.8¢Oct 12
Chris McGowanRepublican
96.9¢
Dave DawsonDemocratic
5.6¢

14,451 traded · 7,603 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

McGowan v Dawson

Metric by metric
McGowan
Dawson
96.9¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
5.6¢
$679.8K
RaisedFEC, through June 30
$135.7K
$328.9K
Cash on handFEC, through June 30
$49.8K
No office on file
Holds now
No office on file

The 2026 race

Iowa 4th District
Prior result
R+34.3

2024 general election, won by Randy Feenstra.

Fundraising
5 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.