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Caroline Shinkle

U.S. House H architectural icon OfficeHouse Republican Long shot
CHALLENGER ON THE 2026 BALLOT SAFE D — AGAINST THE CANDIDATE KALSHI · 1.9¢ · CHECKED 1:29 AM ET
WHAT THE SIGNAL READS ON SHINKLE
THE SEAT THEY ARE IN

Safe D

Caroline Shinkle is a candidate in New York's 12th district, a seat the band rates Safe D. The market prices their contract at 1.9¢ against Lasher's 99.7¢, down 0.6¢ across 25 observation days.

MARKET · PARTY WINNER Kalshi ↗
Caroline Shinkle · Republican · KXHOUSERACE-NY12-26-R

1.9¢

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Caroline Shinkle by name.

▼ 0.6¢

since Aug 3

2026-08-0325 observation days · high 5.5¢ · low 1.9¢2026-09-21
Caroline Shinkle Republican
1.9¢

Settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on this candidate by name.

Micah Lasher Democratic
99.7¢

Settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on this candidate by name.

DEPTH ON THIS BOOK 1,333 traded · 1,328 open

Sides may not sum to 100. Prices are the yes ask. checked 1:29 AM ET

SHINKLE AGAINST LASHER · METRIC BY METRIC
Shinkle
Lasher
MARKETchecked 1:29 AM ET

1.9¢

99.7¢

RAISED THIS CYCLEFederal Election Commission, through June 30, 2026

No filing on file for Caroline Shinkle with the Federal Election Commission.

$3.32M

WHAT THEY HOLD NOW

Holds no office

Candidate

Holds no office

Open-seat candidate

Caroline Shinkle holds no seat, so no redraw applies to them.

THE 2026 RACE · NEW YORK 12TH DISTRICT
LATEST POLLNot yet collectedno qualifying public poll retrieved for this race
PRIOR MARGIND+60.852024 general election · this seat's last result, verified against official results
COMPARE V LASHER ⇄